Stability or Stalemate? Breaking Down the June 2025 U.S.–China Trade Truce

Following high-level trade talks in London from June 9–11, 2025, U.S. and Chinese officials have tentatively agreed to maintain current tariff structures while easing specific non-tariff measures. The parties reportedly agreed to continue operating under the Geneva framework, which includes ongoing tariff relief and cooperative oversight on export controls and rare-earth materials. While the deal signals a continued truce, importers should stay alert, especially as key timelines and review dates approach.

Trade Truce & Tariff Adjustments

Here’s what we know, what remains unchanged, and what to watch for:

Status Quo Continues: Section 301 and Reciprocal Tariffs

As of June 11, 2025:

• The U.S. continues to apply Section 301 tariffs of up to 55% on various Chinese imports.
• China maintains a 10% retaliatory tariff on select U.S. goods.
• Both parties have reaffirmed a commitment to the Geneva framework, which includes:
  • Coordinated export control measures
  • Tariff relief on certain inputs
  • Oversight of sensitive material flows, such as rare-earth minerals

CBP Messaging: CSMS & Filing Guidance

As of June 12, 2025, there has been no new Cargo Systems Messaging Service (CSMS) notice from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP). The most recent, CSMS #65029337 (May 14, 2025), outlines:

• 10% reciprocal tariff (HTSUS 9903.01.25)
• EEPA-based tariffs, including the 20% duty on synthetic opioids and precursor chemicals

The tentative deal suggests policy continuity through at least August 2025, with no immediate changes to CBP processes or filing requirements.

What Importers Should Continue to Monitor After the June U.S.–China Talks

1. CBP CSMS Updates

Watch for official guidance confirming:

• Changes to reciprocal or IEEPA tariff rates
• Any transitional relief or changes to HTS codes
• Revisions to Section 301 coverage following the USTR’s four-year review
• CBP CSMS Portal

2. Federal Register Notices

Formal tariff adjustments require publication by:

• USTR (for Section 301 tariffs)
• Department of the Treasury / CBP (for IEEPA, reciprocal actions)
• Federal Register

3. White House and USTR Announcements

If the London agreement advances to a formal policy shift, expect announcements via:

• USTR
• White House

Expected Timeline

Mid–Late June 2025	Expiration of the current reciprocal tariff unless extended
August 12, 2025	Expiration of the current reciprocal tariff unless extended
Q3 2025	Potential implementation of revised 232/301 tariffs under the Geneva-London framework

Key Takeaways for Importers

No new CSMS means the current tariff treatment remains in effect:

• 10% reciprocal tariff (HTSUS 9903.01.25) through August 12, 2025
• 20% IEEPA tariff on fentanyl-related imports remains active.

No changes to ACE filing protocols at this time.

Importers should monitor for:

• CBP CSMS updates
• Federal Register notices (formal policy changes)
• USTR or White House announcements

How Express Trade Capital Can Help

At Express Trade Capital, we monitor these developments closely to help importers adapt quickly to shifting trade policies. Our team can support you with:

• Customs compliance and tariff classification
• Invoice financing to maintain cash flow under higher duties
• Supply chain planning for Q3 2025 tariff transitions

Need help navigating tariff filing or trade disruptions? Contact us for personalized support.